Gold
keeps shining
If you liked gold in 2006, chances are you'll want to stick
with it in 2007.
(Fortune Magazine) --
Gold got off to a fast start in 2006, hitting a high of $725
an ounce in May. Though it has lost about $80 since then,
it remains well above the $500 an ounce it was fetching when
we suggested in last year's Investor's Guide that it still
had room to run. Many of the factors we cited in making our
call are still influencing the market, including strong demand
from China and India, a weak dollar, and global worries about
terrorism and political tensions. We'd add to that list the
threat of renewed inflation in a world so awash in liquidity
that private-equity mega-deals are now weekly events. So if
you liked gold in 2006, chances are you'll want to stick with
it in 2007.
Another
trend fueling the gold rush has been the popularity of exchange-traded
funds (ETFs), which make it much easier for retail investors
to gild their portfolios with direct exposure to the metal.
Two popular choices include streetTracks Gold Shares (GLD),
which holds about 14.2 million ounces, or $9.2 billion,
of gold bullion in trust. iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)
has 1.4 million ounces of gold in trust, or $880 million.
Both are up about 30% so far this year. For investors who
prefer traditional mutual funds, Franklin and Fidelity offer
top-performing choices that give investors exposure to a
basket of gold-mining stocks.
Markets in flux, but the strength lies with gold
CHINA'S
gold rush reached fever-pitch during the recent Chinese
New Year period, the Xinhua news agency reported.
In the little over two weeks since February 10, retail sales
of gold in Guangzhou alone reached 7.82 tonnes - that's
275,842 ounces, or the annual production of several mid-sized
Australian mines put together.
In
cash terms, those with money to spend on gold parted with
$US224 million ($285 million). And in the Chinese capital,
one department store - Beijing Caishikou - marketed "lucky
balls"' containing just one gram of gold which could
be worn around the neck or wrist.
The
gold content was worth about $US24. Thousands upon thousands
have been sold in the past few weeks.
What
it calls demand from the "historically frustrated Chinese
buyers" is one factor that makes Citigroup bullish
about gold in its latest report on the yellow metal.
It
sticks by its view that the gold price will stay strong
because of Chinese demand, the buying by "petro-dollar
fueled Middle Eastern consumers" and the absence in
the market of aggressive shorts.
Citigroup
is expecting the metal to test $US700/oz in the coming months
and its preferred exposure is through Newcrest Mining (NCM).
Gold
rose 23 per cent in 2006, starting the year at $US517/ounce
and ending it at $US637/oz.
But,
during this period of sustained gold price strength, the
underlying gold equities had generally underperformed and
disappointed.
"In
the space of 12 months, numerous gold producers and developers
have suffered due to higher costs within the industry, toxic
hedge books and underperforming assets," it added.
Meanwhile,
Australia's ample supply of world class deposits had been
plundered by offshore companies over the past five years,
with most being sold off just before the start of the strongest
gold bull market is almost three decades.
The
result: more than 65 per cent of Australian gold production
of 8.2 million ounces a year was now controlled by large
foreign companies.
But
Citigold tells its clients they should stick with the remaining
locally listed majors - Newcrest and Lihir Gold (LHG).
Outside
of those two, the Australian gold sector was highly speculative
in nature with limited investment-quality companies. Of
the two, Newcrest was favoured because of its large reserve
base, low cash costs and a pedigree in exploration that
differentiated it from other gold stocks.
But
the juniors to watch according to Citigold are Avoca Resources
(AVO), Dominion Mining (DOM), Perseverance Group (PSV) and
St Barbara (SBM). Companies with interesting offshore exposure
included Allied Gold (ALD) with Simberi in Papua New Guinea;
Equigold (EQI) at Bonikro in Mali; Oceana Group (OGD) and
the Dinkidi project in the Philippines and Troy Resources
(TRY) which had Melidine in Canada.
Six
Key Financial Indicators Alert Investors to Buy Gold and Gold
Coins
Lear
Financial, Inc. points to six reasons gold and gold coins
will again become the center of the global financial system
Santa
Monica, CA (PRWeb) March 1, 2007 -- The global economic
and financial market looks increasingly precarious and global
trade imbalances are at unprecedented levels. Rising U.S.
interest rates and high oil prices now threaten to push
the system to a breaking point.
In this highly volatile international financial climate,
gold's value, relative to most national currencies, will
soar
"In this highly volatile international financial climate,
gold's value, relative to most national currencies, will
soar," said Kevin DeMeritt, a top gold investment advisor
of Lear Financial, Inc., the parent company of Gold Central,
one of the top gold coin companies in the U.S.
"There
are six key reasons why investors should own gold coins,"
adds DeMeritt.
Inflation
- Today, a number of factors are creating the perfect inflationary
storm: major tax cuts, a spike in oil prices, a mammoth
trade deficit, and America's status as the world's biggest
debtor nation makes owning gold coins a viable hedge against
inflation.
Declining
dollar - Gold is bought and sold in U.S. dollars, so any
decline in the value of the dollar causes the price of gold
to rise. However, now that it has been stripped of its gold
backing, the dollar is nothing more than a fancy piece of
paper.
Gold
as a safe haven - Gold has often been called the "crisis
commodity" because it tends to outperform other investments
during periods of world tensions. When international crisis
is eminent, the public begins to distrust paper assets and
turns to buying gold coins for a safe haven.
Supply
and Demand - Gold production is declining and global demand
is outpacing supply. Both India and China are in the process
of liberalizing laws relating to the import and sale of
gold in ways that will facilitate gold purchases on a mammoth
scale.
Store
of Value - Gold price may fluctuate but over the long run
gold has consistently proved to be an effective preserver
of wealth. It has also proved to be a safe choice in times
of economic and social instability.
Portfolio
Diversifier- Gold is an important part of a diversified
investment portfolio because its price increases in response
to events that erode the value of traditional paper investments
like stocks and bonds.