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Commodity prices will be undermined if US Federal Reserve backs greenback
GM HOLDEN'S decision to close its four-cylinder engine plant at Fishermans Bend isn't a new bear signal for investors, but there's plenty of other weights on the market right now.
            

The plant was killed because it was old (it was built in 1981) and increasingly marginalised by industry demand for high-technology, aluminium-block engines that it could not supply. Production was running at about a third of its peak by the time GM pulled the plug.

There will be a fairly limited flow-through effect to the economy, but the closure is a reminder that exporters are being squeezed by the strong Australian dollar, even as the domestic economy comes off the boil.

This week's news that the Australian economy had grown by a surprisingly strong 3.6% grabbed the headlines, but it was the 0.6% increase in the March quarter that pointed forward, to a sub-par growth rate of about 2.5%.

And the post-March pointers are weak: retail sales fell by 0.2% in April to be basically flat in the first four months of the year, for example, and some news on trading conditions since then came yesterday from whitegoods and appliance retailer Clive Peeters. In February it said that earnings in the year to June would probably beat last year's $13.5 million result by about 10%. Yesterday it said earnings would be more like $10.2 million.

The retailer said trading was on track in the first two months of the year, but slowed in March, deteriorated sharply in April and got even worse in May, despite an advertising blitz.

For investors looking for resources shares to compensate for weakening industrials, developments in that sector this week were also a bit worrying.

The key development was US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's unexpected ride to the assistance of the US dollar, which has declined by 15% against the euro in a year, and by 24% since the beginning of 2006.

Bernanke said on Tuesday that the Fed was monitoring the greenback's slide and its potential to spur inflation in the US, and would continue to guard against "an erosion in longer-term inflation expectations".

By the end of the week, a tug of war had emerged, with the European Central Bank leaving its key rate unchanged but signalling that it could defend the euro by raising rates next month.

But if Bernanke backs up his words and tries to defend the dollar, commodity prices will be undermined — because a higher dollar translates arithmetically to lower prices for all the $US denominated commodities, and because the only realistic way for Bernanke to get the dollar higher is to either hold US rates where they are, or raise them, pulling down on economic activity in the process.


Courtesy : TheAge.com
  
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